Be The Change 2023: Nice figures that need to be put in sobering perspective
The job creation figures in recent years seem glorious, despite combined crises. Unfortunately, we need to put those figures in perspective and sober up. Because that sheen quickly dims when we compare the Belgian figures with our own stated ambitions or with the figures of other European countries. The figures expose a story of missed opportunities. They tell a story of sub-optimal use of Belgian potential and of our assets as an agile, open economy. We are faced with the difficult challenge of avoiding a downturn in our economy and labour market and turning it into an ambitious, upward dynamic again.
A first quick reading of the figures is positive. All in all, the Belgian economy was able to create and fill 414,000 jobs over the past six years. That brought the number of Belgians employed to over 5 million. 69,000 additional jobs were filled each year on average from the start of 2017 to the end of 2022. We noted a clear acceleration because the average additional job creation per year for the longer period between 1995 and 2022 is only 44,000. In fact, in 2022, we created 107,000 additional jobs and at the end of 2022, our employment rate counter was at a record high of 71.9%.
A glance at the future tells us that the National Bank of Belgium and the Federal Planning Bureau, among others, predict an annual average economic growth rate of 1.5%. If we follow those projections for our country up to 2030, then creating around 304,000 jobs between now and 2030 and fill them effectively seems feasible. Sounds good too to be true. That trend will bring Belgium's employment rate to 76.5% in 2030.
Policymakers charted the course at the start of this legislature and set the well-founded ambition at 80%. This was certainly not done without considerable effort. And from here on, our figures get their real perspective. After all, we will not achieve this grand ambition in the current context. In 2030, we will be 266,000 filled jobs short of the 80% target. Or else, in the current context of predicted growth of our economy, we will only achieve that 80% figure by 2037. With a 7-year delay.
Were the targets too ambitious? Is 80% actually unnecessary or just unachievable? The European context shows us the feasibility of the ambition. The budgetary context of our country, our ageing population and our increasing healthcare needs, which we want to continue to cover according to our rightly high standards, show us the necessity.
No fewer than 11 European countries meet the 80% standard already today. The jobs needed to achieve better employment rates are there. Belgium has the unenviable highest vacancy rate in Europe. For their part, the people are actually there too. We count more than one and a half million Belgians who are not at work and are not looking for a job. We are among the 5 EU27 Member States with the highest inactivity rate.
The fact that jobs do not get filled while a lot of people are out of work puts a heavy burden on our budget and thus on Belgians: Unused potential to grow GDP on the one hand, combined with a high cost of replacement incomes on the other.
This situation erodes our competitiveness in a European as well as a global context. For we have to put more burdens on work - and thus on workers - to help pay for an increasing share of replacement incomes and ageing costs. Workers are dissatisfied. Employers are dissatisfied. Countries where those pressures are lower are faring better and taking market shares more easily. We risk achieving less economic growth and thus of ending up in deeper, unfavourable waters in terms of job creation.
What will it take to turn this vicious circle around? How can we move up from the tail to at least the middle of the European pack? In this new Be The Change publication, we reach out to guiding principles that can actually turn the tide when legislative proposals and actions respond to them in the best possible way. It will take tonnes of courage to behave politically, economically and socially according to these principles. This applies also for companies, which will have to open their doors wider; for young people during their education; for growth candidates who do not yet meet all competence expectations; and for aged employees with tonnes of experience who, with some job redesign in time, want to give their best for years to come.
The core mission of the Be The Change team remains to explain in clear terms the complex mechanism behind this welfare and prosperity combination and to reduce figures and various discourse to their proper context -- for governments, trade unions, employers, academics and training providers, employment agencies, job coaches, workers, jobseekers, young people... for Jeff and Farouk. For Jane and Layla.
That gives us a great responsibility and we continue to take it. .
